What does Bush?s second term mean to US, others?
Submitted by Boney on November 6, 2004 - 18:48.
BY KALYANI SHANKAR
THE curtains are down and the fat lady has sung. After a full year of campaign and ?will he, won?t he? suspense, Bush is back as a tenant in the White House. It was the most important call for President George W Bush when his challenger John Kerry rang up to concede defeat. It must have been music to his ears when Kerry said ?Congratulations Mr. President?.
Till the wee hours of the morning Bush and his aides were in the White House chalking out their strategy in case there was litigation. It was creditable for Bush to win a second term, which his father senior Bush could not do so in 1992 despite winning the Glf war.
The Americans have decided on a status quo rather than going for a change. Interestingly, Bush won with more than three million popular vote unlike his previous term when Al Gore had walked away with the popular vote while Bush snatched the presidency. There were four basic issues, which emerged during the campaign.
Values, terrorism, Iraq and economy. How is he going to deal with each of these? Political analysts think that it was the moral value issue, which got more votes for Bush than the other three. There was an undercurrent. Gay issue, or abortion and other issues dominated the minds of the people.
Bush was seen as a crusader and he talked about his values. He was seen as a messenger with a message and he was able to communicate his message quite well. Many in Europe, Japan, Middle East and elsewhere may have preferred John Kerry but they will have to live with the status quo now that Bush has won. What does second term of Bush mean to Americans as well as the rest of the world?
Will he continue with his bulldozing to deal with the world or will there be any change? Will he give respect to the United Nations or will he be more aggressive and ignore it? Will there be a change in his foreign policy? How would he deal with Korea and Iran? How would he deal with Iraq? These are some of the questions on the lips of many who are watching Bush.
The world will be watching his second term with great interest and expectation. In the case of most American presidents who have earned a second term, some were relaxed and wanted to leave behind their stamp. In their first term, they began to prepare for their second term. Will Bush change his style of functioning and choose a new team and be liberal?
Bush could do a lot in his second term. The most challenging job is to unite the country, which he did not do during the last four years. In 2000 also the country was sharply divided between Bush and Al Gore.
The vertical division should worry the Americans. In fact, Kerry, when he rang up the President mentioned this fact and wanted unification of the country. Will Bush work for this? While the Democrats think he will be a divider, Bush supporters think that he will be more conciliatory to the Democrats and reach out.
With a popular mandate and with the Congress and the Senate on his side, it will be easier for Bush to be magnanimous and behave like a statesman.
The second domestic problem is fulfilling his promises about jobs, economy and homeland security. His budget will indicate this. For all these, he needs his team and it is still under speculation whether he will change his team. It is a question mark whether his Secretary of State Colin Powell will continue as it was a well known secret that he was unhappy with some foreign policy decisions, particularly on Iraq.
Will he continue to isolate the United States on his Iraq policy or will he try to get the support of the other countries in Europe and elsewhere? British Prime Minister Tony Blair has already pledged his renewed support. Will he have improved relations with France and Germany?
How will he extricate himself and the US from the Iraq mess? Kerry had talked of consensus politics and getting other countries on board and it is time Bush did it. A lot depends on what his advisers tell him. His vice president Cheney is one of his key advisers and so was Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and it is a question mark whether they will continue with the same Iraq policy.
It is evident that his aggressive foreign policy is not working well be it vis a vis Iraq, or Iran or Palestine or North Korea. There is the unfinished agenda. How would he deal with Iran and North Korea on their nuclear ambitions? Will he able to bring them round? Another challenge is the Middle East peace process, which seems to be stuck. Now that Palestinian leader Arafat is ill, will that change the scenario?
Bush has to decide whether his administration will take more interest in the peace process. As far as European Union is concerned, it is a known secret that the two do not see eye to eye on many things. Would he be friendlier with Europe? South Asia may not be a priority for the Bush administration and one cannot expect much change because of continuity.
Pakistan continues to occupy center stage for strategic reasons. Bush is interested on two specific things from Pakistan. One is continued base for the US in Pakistan for its operations in Afghanistan and the second is hunt for Osama Bin Laden.
Clubbed with it is the safety of Pakistan nuclear weapons, which should at no cost fall into the hands of terrorists. Bush will continue to support Musharraf. The Bush administration may now insist on taking forward the Kashmir talks and prod both India and Pakistan on dialogue.
As far as India is concerned, the status quo means continuity in the Indo- American relations and may even take it forward. The US could invest in Indian infrastructure area. There will be a sigh of relief as far as information technology and outsourcing is concerned as Bush is in favour of this. Bush has so much to do in the next four years, particularly on fighting terrorism and one can only wish him well.
